Hong Kong Property Market Forecast 2018

发布日期: Jan 25 2018最后更新日期: Jan 25 2018
分享:
 
25 January 2018 - As expected, the 2017 residential housing market ended strong, with first-hand and second-hand property sales valued at HK$15.8 billion and HK$26.1 billion respectively, bringing the annual residential unit transaction amount to HK$556 billion—a 30 per cent surge compared to 2016.  Since the second half of 2017, analysts have been speculating whether the Hong Kong property market would boom or bust in  2018: UBS gave Hong Kong a Global Real Estate Bubble Risk Index of 1.73 (any markets scoring higher than 1.5 falls into the bubble risk territory ), whereas JLL expects Hong Kong home prices to rise by as much as 20% in 2018.  So, will the world’s most expensive housing market crash in 2018? Given the real estate property market trends that we are anticipating during the year, probably not.
 
 
Record-breaking primary sales and growing secondary sales 
 
The overwhelming demand for first-hand properties brought primary home sales to new heights in 2017, with the annual transaction amount setting a record of HK$240 billion. The soaring primary housing market shows no signs of cooling off with continued enthusiasm for new properties: the first residential project launch in 2018, St Barths in Ma On Shan, attracted as many as 18 prospective buyers submitting bids for every available unit.  Although the developer offered discounts of up to 22 per cent, the per-square-foot price was set between HK$15,500 to HK$18,700, crowning St Barths the most expensive residential development of the district to date. 
 
As the demand for first-hand homes consistently outstrips supply, in 2018, the primary property market is predicted to set records both in terms of home prices and transaction volume. This could be good news for the second-hand property market as it could lead to a maximum of 12 per cent increase in secondary home prices, as forecasted by Knight Frank. 
 
 
Interest rates will rise—but not enough to result in a slump in home prices
 
Reacting to the rise in US interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in mid-December, the Hong Kong Money Authority raised the base lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent.  In anticipation of the Fed’s move, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) was driven up from 0.367 per cent in June to 1.01 per cent in December. This means HIBOR-based mortgage borrowers will have to make higher repayments.  While this has no immediate impact on prime-based home loans, as the base lending rate and HIBOR go up and banks obtain money from the HKMA and other banks at higher rates, analysts expect banks to raise their prime rates in early 2018 to maintain desirable margins. 
 
Highest interest rates could impede home price growth to some extent, but it would be insufficient to cause the housing market to collapse. This is because the city’s housing demand still far exceeds home supply. Nonetheless, ever since the Fed confirmed a raise in US rates, the Hong Kong market anticipates a subsequent increase in Hong Kong interest rates as the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. As a result, the impact is believed be relatively light, as predicted by David Ji, head of research and consultancy for Greater China at Knight Frank. 
 
 
New homes in the New Territories
 
Riding on the overflowing demand for new properties, more developers are participating in the first-hand market in the hopes of gaining a share of lucrative primary sales revenue. New property developments in 2018 are forecast to provide about 26,840 residential units, of which 60 per cent of supply will be found in the New Territories, particularly in Yuen Long and Tuen Mun.  As more competitors emerge, developers will be inclined to employ more creative sales strategies, for instance, by offering mortgage plans with a higher loan-to-value ratio or tax allowances, to attract prospective buyers.
 
Subscribe to our newsletter for more timely insights on the Hong Kong property market. 

您或会感兴趣

2024施政報告 :「中小企融資擔保計劃」的優化措施

行政長官今日(十月十六日)於《行政長官2024年施政報告》宣布,容許「中小企融資擔保計劃」的借款企業就現有及新造貸款申請最多12個月「還息不還本」,並將八成和九成信貸擔保產品的最長貸款擔保期分別延長至十年和八年,同時向兩種擔保產品下的新造貸款提供「部分本金還款」選項。這些措施旨在減輕借款企業的還款負擔,協助它們應對經濟轉型期的挑戰。香港按證保險有限公司會與貸款機構跟進上述新措施的執行細節,目標在今年十一月內落實各項新措施。借款企業屆時可聯絡貸款機構商討具體安排。Source: The Gove
作者: OKAY.com

OKAY.COM筍盤推介 : 舂坎角靜修里 悠閒綠空間 淺調寬廳柔和舒適

港島舂坎角一帶豪宅林立,而且四周環境幽靜舒適,向來吸引富豪名人聚居,是次介紹的靜修里一個3房單位,大宅四周綠樹環繞,讓住戶沉浸於大自然靜謐之中。單位採高樓底設計,有助增強空間感,廳房均設窗戶讓室內自然光充足。客廳盡頭設露台,外望翠綠景致,同時有助廣納室外陽光入室內。主人睡房間隔方正實用,擺放雙人睡牀後能做到三邊下牀。飯廳設有窗戶,確保亮度,擺放長方形六人木餐桌,與木地板互相映襯。 廚房除設曲尺工作枱外,還選用中島工作枱設計,提供大量位置處理食材。單位採高樓底設計,有助增強空間感。客廳部分擺放
作者: OKAY.com
更多評論

想秒速寻觅理想「屋企」?我们乐意帮您!

OKAY.COM 手机程式
OKAY.COM 手机程式 - iOS 苹果应用程式商店OKAY.COM 手机程式 - Android 安卓应用程式商店
追踪我们
香港中环云咸街19-27号威信大厦15楼
+852 2102 0888
Do you want to login
You already have an account with us? How about logging in?